A malaria resurgence could cost Africa $83 billion in lost GDP by 2030, alongside 525 million additional cases and 990,000 deaths – including 750,000 children under five – according to a new report from the African Leaders Malaria Alliance (ALMA) and Malaria No More UK.
The analysis, Malaria: The Price of Retreat, models the consequences of different funding scenarios ahead of the 8th replenishment of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, which will be co-hosted by the UK Government and the Government of South Africa on 21st November 2025. The Global Fund provides nearly 60% of all international financing for malaria, including next-generation mosquito nets and seasonal chemoprevention for children.
Should prevention efforts collapse due to underfunding, researchers project hundreds of thousands more young children would die by 2030. The loss of a generation to malaria would not only devastate families and communities, but it would also stall Africa’s demographic dividend, with profound consequences for the continent’s future workforce and immediate economic growth. In Zambia, a leading sugar firm managed to eliminate malaria, boosting productivity — but the management warns progress is fragile without Global Fund support.
Conversely, if leaders step up and funding gets back on track, the report predicts a $230 billion boost to GDP and $34 billion in future earnings for children, with millions of lives saved by 2030. The report warns that the economic risks extend beyond Africa: weaker African growth threatens global trade, disrupts supply chains, and undermines stability in one of the world’s fastest-growing markets.
The report comes as the malaria fight faces a perfect storm of threats, from extreme weather events and humanitarian crises to rising biological resistance, compounded by recent funding cuts.
Alongside international support, African governments are also stepping up. Leaders have pledged to intensify domestic resource mobilisation, while national End Malaria Councils – now active in 11 countries – have raised over $166 million from public and private sources, driving the “whole of society” response needed to defeat the disease.
With Africa’s growth and the next generation at stake, Malaria No More UK and the African Leaders Malaria Alliance are urging world leaders to provide the Global Fund with the investment it needs at its forthcoming replenishment. African nations are stepping up to lead the fight against malaria, but to turn this progress into a lasting victory, solidarity from G7 leaders remains absolutely vital.
“In 2025, we have the chance to invest in the Global Fund and secure stronger, more stable economies for a more prosperous world. If we fail to act, malaria could steal Africa’s children, and $83 billion of our future GDP,” said His Excellency Duma Gideon Boko, President of the Republic of Botswana. The case of Nandudu Hasifah, 19, of Uganda, tells the impact Malaria is having on children. Nandundu was forced to abandon school and work due to repeated bouts of malaria.
Dr Daniel Kyabayinze, Ministry of Health in Uganda, said without Global Fund support, it would be disastrous.
Aliko Dangote, African business leader, said, as a business leader, I know that malaria is not just a health crisis; it is an $83 billion brake on Africa’s growth and enterprise. Businesses cannot thrive in sick communities. Investing in the Global Fund is one of the smartest economic decisions the world can make.
“Ending malaria is a win-win: it saves lives, strengthens health systems, and can unlock $230 billion in growth for Africa by 2030. Leaders from donor countries and malaria-endemic nations must step up and fully replenish the Global Fund,” said Joy Phumaphi, Executive Secretary of the African Leaders Malaria Alliance.
“Act now or pay later. Full investment in the Global Fund can save millions of children’s lives, unlock billions in growth, and make the world safer. Cuts could trigger the deadliest malaria resurgence ever seen,” said Gareth Jenkins, Managing Director at Malaria No More UK.
“The UK has long played a leading role in malaria science, and we need to back the Global Fund to ensure British-backed innovations reach the children who need them. This not only saves lives around the world but also helps bolster the UK’s trading relationships with some of the world’s fastest-growing economies in Africa.”