By Henry Neondo
Africa faces mounting climate risks as global adaptation finance falls far short of requirements, raising pressure on developed countries ahead of COP31.
Developing countries will require approximately US$305 billion annually by 2035 to adapt to the escalating impacts of climate change, but international public financing remains significantly below the amount needed, according to a new report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
The Adaptation Gap Report 2026: Ready? Not. Climate Impacts Will Not Wait. Adaptation Finance Must Rise warns that the growing disconnect between climate risks and adaptation financing is leaving vulnerable populations increasingly exposed to extreme weather events, including droughts, floods, heatwaves and wildfires.
Released on November 4, the report estimates that developing countries require between US$255 billion and US$328 billion annually over the next decade to implement their adaptation priorities. Its central estimate places annual requirements at approximately US$305 billion by 2035, based on countries’ nationally determined contributions and national adaptation plans.
However, international public adaptation finance from developed to developing countries reached only between US$28.2 billion and US$31.7 billion in 2024, representing an increase of approximately US$1 billion from the previous year.
The report warns that even if the international commitment to triple adaptation finance by 2035 is achieved, the resulting funding would cover only 20–29 per cent of developing countries’ projected adaptation needs.
The findings present a significant concern for African countries, where climate change is intensifying existing development challenges, threatening agricultural livelihoods, water security, infrastructure, public health and ecosystem sustainability.
Africa’s adaptation financing challenge
For African countries, the financing shortfall raises questions about how governments can translate climate adaptation commitments into practical interventions that protect communities and strengthen resilience.
Across the continent, climate-related shocks increasingly affect communities dependent on rain-fed agriculture, pastoralism, fisheries and natural resources. Droughts, floods and changing rainfall patterns are disrupting livelihoods, food production and access to essential services.
Although the report presents estimates for developing countries collectively rather than Africa alone, its findings highlight the structural financing challenges confronting climate-vulnerable economies.
The report estimates that least developed countries (LDCs) and small island developing states (SIDS) require between US$40 billion and US$50 billion annually for adaptation over the coming decade. These requirements represent approximately 3–4 per cent of their gross domestic product, twice the relative financing needs of upper-middle-income developing countries.
UNEP notes that many vulnerable countries face severe fiscal constraints and debt pressures, limiting their capacity to finance climate adaptation through domestic resources.
It further stresses the importance of maintaining grants and highly concessional financing, particularly for countries that cannot afford additional debt to respond to climate-related emergencies.
Tripling adaptation finance will not close the gap
The report examines the implications of the COP30 call to triple international adaptation finance by 2035, noting that the ambition, although welcome, may be insufficient to address the scale of the challenge.
Depending on the baseline used to calculate the increase, international adaptation finance could rise to between US$85 billion and US$120 billion annually by 2035.
However, when projected inflation is considered, developing countries’ adaptation financing requirements could reach US$420 billion annually by that year.
Consequently, even achieving the tripling ambition would leave a substantial financing gap.
For least developed countries and small island developing states, the outlook is comparatively more encouraging. Tripling adaptation finance flows to these countries could cover approximately 49–84 per cent of their projected needs by 2035.
The report also identifies growing South-South climate cooperation as a positive development. Financial contributions from developing countries, channelled mainly through multilateral development banks and bilateral cooperation, increased from US$3.8 billion in 2019 to US$9.6 billion in 2024.
Nevertheless, UNEP cautions that private-sector financing cannot independently address the adaptation deficit. Although private adaptation finance is increasing, it is estimated to reduce the funding gap for more public-oriented adaptation priorities by only 15–20 per cent.
Beyond financing: Institutional barriers undermine adaptation
UNEP argues that increasing climate finance alone will not guarantee effective adaptation unless countries strengthen the institutional systems responsible for translating policies and plans into implementation.
The report identifies eight institutional factors that influence adaptation delivery, including effective legal and policy frameworks, clearly defined institutional responsibilities, coordination across government levels, stakeholder participation, monitoring and accountability, knowledge exchange, and mechanisms for mobilising and managing climate finance.
It highlights the importance of involving affected communities in designing and implementing adaptation interventions.
For African countries, this is particularly relevant given the need to strengthen locally led adaptation, improve coordination between national and county governments, and ensure that climate financing reaches communities experiencing the most severe impacts.
The report notes that governments can accelerate implementation by building on existing institutional structures rather than creating entirely new systems. Strengthening coordination, accountability and knowledge-sharing mechanisms can help bridge the gap between adaptation planning and practical delivery.
Loss and damage financing remains inadequate
The report also highlights the growing scale of climate-related losses and damages, particularly in vulnerable developing countries.
Between 2020 and 2025, low- and middle-income countries accounted for 99 per cent of the 765 million people recorded as affected by floods and landslides.
It also identifies significant gaps in how countries document and respond to climate-related losses. Although 89 per cent of 118 countries mention or discuss loss and damage in their national climate commitments or adaptation plans, only 54 per cent have established information systems for tracking such impacts, while 38 per cent have relevant legal frameworks.
The report further warns that conventional assessments often overlook non-economic losses, including damage to cultural heritage, biodiversity, ecosystem services, community identity and mental health.
Financing for loss and damage is also significantly below identified demand.
During the first funding round of the Fund for responding to Loss and Damage, 119 developing countries submitted requests totalling US$2.8 billion, against an initial funding envelope of just US$342 million.
UNEP says the disparity demonstrates the substantial unmet demand for support, although the overall global financing gap for loss and damage cannot yet be reliably quantified.
It calls for stronger assessment capacity, predictable financial and technical support, simplified funding procedures and meaningful participation by affected communities in determining appropriate responses.
COP31 presents an opportunity to turn commitments into action
The findings come just days before the 31st UN Climate Change Conference (COP31), scheduled to take place in Antalya, Türkiye, from November 9–20, 2026.
For African governments and climate negotiators, the report provides further evidence for demanding increased, predictable and accessible adaptation financing, particularly grant-based support for vulnerable countries.
It also reinforces calls for stronger adaptation commitments, adequate financing for loss and damage, and approaches that recognise the importance of community participation and locally led climate solutions.
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen says the world is not adequately prepared for current climate conditions, let alone the consequences of global warming exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
The report argues that adaptation must become a central component of climate action, supported by financing and institutions capable of delivering tangible results.
For Africa, the challenge extends beyond securing additional commitments. It is also about ensuring that climate finance translates into stronger agricultural systems, resilient infrastructure, secure water supplies, protected ecosystems and improved livelihoods.
As COP31 approaches, the report sends a clear message: the growing impacts of climate change cannot be addressed through adaptation plans and political declarations alone. The resources, institutional capacity and accountability mechanisms required to implement those commitments must match the scale of the crisis.
Source: United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Adaptation Gap Report 2026: Ready? Not. Climate Impacts Will Not Wait. Adaptation Finance Must Rise.
Full report: https://wedocs.unep.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/97ea09ad-1b46-4903-884f-f6c8e7681d70/content